Global Market Financial Weekly Report:
December 2024, Week 2
This week's report highlights mixed market sentiment driven by Trump's economic policies, Nvidia's antitrust scrutiny in China, soaring coffee prices, ECB's rate cut, and a quantum computing breakthrough. Markets showed volatility amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions.
Citation: BBC News、NASDAQ News
Trump's Economic Policies Drive Mixed Market Sentiment
Positive Reactions
U.S. markets initially responded positively to promises of deregulation and tax reform, boosting short-term optimism in equities.
Concerns
Inflation fears, rising bond yields, and potential trade tensions tempered enthusiasm, especially among institutional investors.
Nvidia Faces Antitrust Scrutiny in China

Investigation Impact
China's probe into Nvidia highlights intensifying U.S.-China tech competition, creating uncertainty in the global semiconductor market.

Potential Consequences
Immediate risks for Nvidia include delays in product approvals and reputational damage in the Chinese market.

Opportunity for Taiwan
Taiwan's semiconductor sector may capture a greater share of GPU and AI chip production, particularly for non-Chinese markets.
Coffee Prices Soar Amid Supply Disruptions
$3.44
Record Price
Coffee prices hit a decade high of $3.44 per pound due to extreme weather events in Brazil and Vietnam.
12%
Production Shortfall
Global coffee production fell short by 12%, contributing to an 80% price surge.
2026
Recovery Timeline
Brazil unlikely to recover full output potential before 2026, according to analysts.
ECB Implements Rate Cut to Counter Slowdown
1
Rate Cut
ECB reduced interest rates by 25 basis points
2
Rationale
Downgraded GDP forecasts for 2024
3
Goal
Bolster liquidity in weakening macroeconomic environment
Quantum Computing Breakthrough: Google's "Willow" Chip
Milestone Achievement
Google's "Willow" chip marks a major leap in quantum error correction technology.
Potential Applications
Breakthrough has implications for energy optimization and pharmaceutical research.
Investor Interest
Renewed venture capital flowing into quantum computing startups.
Global Equity Market Performance

1

U.S. Markets
S&P 500 lost 0.4%, Nasdaq shed 1.2%, while Dow Jones gained 0.8%

2

European Markets
Rallied following ECB's rate cut

3

Asian Markets
Japan's Nikkei up 1.6%, China's SSE Composite down 0.3%
Commodities and Forex Market Update
Commodities
Oil prices climbed with Brent crude at $82 per barrel. Coffee and cocoa prices surged due to supply constraints. Gold and silver declined.
Forex
U.S. dollar index rose 0.9%. Euro weakened post-ECB rate cut. Emerging market currencies faced pressure.
U.S. Economic Indicators
Nonfarm Payrolls
227,000 jobs added in November, exceeding expectations
PPI Inflation
Producer price index increased by 3.0% YoY in November
Consumer Confidence
University of Michigan Index fell slightly to 64.7
Eurozone Economic Data

Industrial Output
Germany and Italy reported contractions of 1.2% and 0.9% respectively

Inflation Projections
Revised downward to 2.4% for 2024, reflecting moderating energy prices

ECB Policy
25 basis point rate cut implemented to stimulate growth
China's Economic Indicators

1

2

3

1

Exports
6.7% YoY growth in November, missing forecasts

2

Credit Growth
Total social financing fell 3.4%

3

Tech Scrutiny
Antitrust investigation into Nvidia
Market Outlook: Equities
U.S. Markets
Higher volatility expected. Growth sectors may face headwinds, while value stocks in industrials and energy remain favorable.
European Markets
ECB policy may buoy equities short-term, but weak industrial data could limit gains.
Asian Markets
Chinese equities may face pressure, while Japan's positive earnings trends support growth.
Market Outlook: Bonds and Commodities

1

2

3

4

1

U.S. Treasuries
Yields expected to stabilize, awaiting December CPI data

2

European Bonds
Marginal declines in yields anticipated

3

Oil
Brent crude forecasted between $80-$85 per barrel

4

Coffee
Prices likely to remain elevated due to supply constraints
Forex Market Outlook
1
U.S. Dollar
Expected to persist in strength due to economic resilience and higher yields
2
Euro
May face additional downward pressure following ECB rate cut
3
Asian Currencies
Remain vulnerable to slowing Chinese growth
Conclusion and Investment Strategy

Mixed Sentiment
Optimism from U.S. labor data and ECB policy tempered by inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties

Balanced Approach
Focus on resilient sectors like industrials and energy, while being cautious of tech and growth stocks

Diversification
Commodities reflect climate and geopolitical risks, signaling importance of diversified strategies amid volatility